CEPR Discussion Paper: Leaning against the wind and crisis risk

Author(s): Moritz Schularick, Lucas Ter Steege and Felix Ward Date: May 2020 Abstract: Can central banks defuse rising stability risks in financial booms by leaning against the wind with higher interest rates? This paper studies the state-dependent effects of monetary policy on financial crisis risk. Based on the near-universe of advanced economy financial cycles since[…]

CEPR Discussion Paper: Forward interest rates as predictors of future US and UK spot rates before and after the 2008 financial crisis

Author(s): Michael R. Wickens Date: May 2020 Abstract: A feature of the financial crisis rarely mentioned in the academic literature is that forward interest rates remained persistently higher than future spot rates. Yet according to the expectations hypothesis forward interest rates are unbiased predictors of future spot rates. More general theories attribute the forecast errors[…]

CEPR Discussion Paper: Unintended Consequences of the Global Derivatives Market Reform

Author(s): Pauline Gandré, Mike Mariathasan, Ouarda Merrouche and Steven Ongena Date: May 2020 Abstract: We investigate regulatory arbitrage during the G20’s global derivatives market reform. We handcollect comprehensive data on the staggered reform process and show that its progress is primarily driven by structural time-invariant factors. Following the reform banks shift up to 70 percent[…]

ECB Conference on Money Markets

CfP Deadline Date: June 29, 20220 Conference Event: November 23-24, 2020 Event Location: Frankfurt am Main, Germany Keynote speaker(s): Isabel Schnabel (Member of the Executive Board, ECB) Gara Afonso (Assistant Vice President in the Financial Intermediation Function, Federal Reserve Bank of New York) Organizer(s): Johannes Breckenfelder (ECB, Financial Research) Marco Corsi (ECB, Market Operations Analysis)[…]