CEPR Discussion Paper: The Micro and Macro Dynamics of Capital Flows

Author(s): Felipe Saffie, Liliana Varela, and Kei-Mu Yi Date: June 2020 Abstract: We empirically and theoretically study the effects of capital flows on resource allocation within sectors and cross-sectors. Novel data on service firms – in addition to manufacturing firms – allows us to assess two channels of resource reallocation. Capital inflows lower the relative[…]

CEPR Discussion Paper: The Dollar and Corporate Borrowing Costs

Author(s): Ralf Meisenzahl, Friederike Niepmann, and Tim Schmidt-Eisenlohr Date: June 2020 Abstract: We show that U.S. dollar movements affect syndicated loan terms for U.S. borrowers, even for those without trade exposure. We identify the effect of dollar movements using spread and loan amount adjustments during the syndication process. Using this high-frequency, within loan variation, we[…]

NBER Working Paper: The Anatomy of the Transmission of Macroprudential Policies

Author(s): Viral V. Acharya, Katharina Bergant, Matteo Crosignani, Tim Eisert, and Fergal J. McCann Date: May 2020 Abstract: We analyze how regulatory constraints on household leverage—in the form of loan-to-income and loan-to-value limits—affect residential mortgage credit and house prices as well as other asset classes not directly targeted by the limits. Supervisory loan level data[…]

IMF Working Paper: Effects of Macroprudential Policy: Evidence from Over 6,000 Estimates

Author(s):Juliana Dutra Araujo, Manasa Patnam, Adina Popescu, Fabian Valencia, and Weijia Yao Date:May 22, 2020 Abstract: This paper builds a novel database on the effects of macroprudential policy drawing from 58 empirical studies, comprising over 6,000 results on a wide range of instruments and outcome variables. It encompasses information on statistical significance, standardized magnitudes, and[…]

CEPR Discussion Paper: Leaning against the wind and crisis risk

Author(s): Moritz Schularick, Lucas Ter Steege and Felix Ward Date: May 2020 Abstract: Can central banks defuse rising stability risks in financial booms by leaning against the wind with higher interest rates? This paper studies the state-dependent effects of monetary policy on financial crisis risk. Based on the near-universe of advanced economy financial cycles since[…]

CEPR Discussion Paper: Forward interest rates as predictors of future US and UK spot rates before and after the 2008 financial crisis

Author(s): Michael R. Wickens Date: May 2020 Abstract: A feature of the financial crisis rarely mentioned in the academic literature is that forward interest rates remained persistently higher than future spot rates. Yet according to the expectations hypothesis forward interest rates are unbiased predictors of future spot rates. More general theories attribute the forecast errors[…]

CEPR Discussion Paper: Unintended Consequences of the Global Derivatives Market Reform

Author(s): Pauline Gandré, Mike Mariathasan, Ouarda Merrouche and Steven Ongena Date: May 2020 Abstract: We investigate regulatory arbitrage during the G20’s global derivatives market reform. We handcollect comprehensive data on the staggered reform process and show that its progress is primarily driven by structural time-invariant factors. Following the reform banks shift up to 70 percent[…]

BIS Working Paper: Global and domestic financial cycles: variations on a theme

Author(s):Iñaki Aldasoro, Stefan Avdjiev, Claudio Borio and Piti Disyatat Date:May 2020 Abstract: We compare and contrast two prominent notions of financial cycles: a domestic variant, which focuses on how financial conditions within individual economies lead to boom-bust cycles there; and a global variant, which highlights how global financial conditions affect individual economies. The two notions[…]

CEPR Discussion Paper: Bank Resolution Regimes and Systemic Risk

Author(s): Thorsten Beck, Deyan Radev, Isabel Schnabel Date: May 2020 Abstract: We assess the ability of bank resolution frameworks to deal with systemic banking fragility. Using a novel and detailed database on bank resolution regimes in 22 member countries of the Financial Stability Board, we show that systemic risk, as measured by △CoVaR, increases more[…]

NBER Working Paper: Optimal Bailouts and the Doom Loop with a Financial Network

Author(s): Agostino Capponi, Felix C. Corell, and Joseph E. Stiglitz Date: May 2020 Abstract: Banks usually hold large amounts of domestic public debt which makes them vulnerable to their own sovereign’s default risk. At the same time, governments often resort to costly public bailouts when their domestic banking sector is in trouble. We investigate how[…]