Author(s):Martin Kliem & Norbert Metiu Date:November, 2025 Abstract: Financial cycles, characterized by long-term fluctuations in credit and house prices, have profound implications for macro-financial stability. This study explores how systematic monetary policy can shape these cycles, offering insights into its potential to mitigate financial instability. Using U.S. data, we demonstrate that monetary policy can dampen[…]

Author(s):Serkan Arslanalp, Barry Eichengreen & Chima Simpson-Bell Date:November, 2025 Abstract: We document some underappreciated aspects of the recent evolution of the international reserve system. These include the growing share of gold in global central bank reserves, the continuing emergence of nontraditional reserve currencies, and the stalling share of renminbi in reserves. These trends are consistent[…]

Author(s):Sarah Quincy & Chenzi Xu Date:November, 2025 Abstract: We study the long-run effects of the first wave of U.S. banking market integration on capital mobility and manufacturing productivity. Using newly digitized bank and branch balance sheet data matched to state and county panels, we provide direct evidence that branching produced lasting productivity gains without aggregate[…]

Author(s):Giovanni Covi, Maren Froemel, Dennis Reinhardt and Nora Wegner Date:October 31, 2025 Abstract: How do banks respond to transition risk and which mechanisms drive this response? We shed new light on this question using data on granular international large exposures of UK banks. Climate policy is the main source of transition risk we use. We[…]

Author(s):Olivier De Jonghe et al. Date:November, 2025 Abstract: We study heterogeneity in households’ credit across nine European countries (Belgium, Spain, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Portugal, and Slovakia) during 2022-2024 using granular credit register data. We first document substantial between- and within-country variation in mortgage and consumer lending by borrower age, loan maturity, and interest[…]

Author(s):Lara Coulier, Cosimo Pancaro, Livia Pancotto & Alessio Reghezza Date:November, 2025 Abstract: How do banks manage the behavioural maturity of non-maturing deposits (NMDs)? Using a rich and confidential dataset, we investigate how banks model deposit maturities based on internal assumptions. Although NMDs are contractually floating-rate liabilities with zero maturity, banks reallocate them across different maturity[…]

Author(s):Sergio A. Correia, Stephan Luck & Emil Verner Date:October, 2025 Abstract: This paper studies the role of banking supervision in anticipating, monitoring, and disciplining failing banks. We document that supervisors anticipate most bank failures with a high degree of accuracy. Supervisors play an important role in requiring troubled banks to recognize losses, taking enforcement actions,[…]

Author(s):Matthew Baron, Luc Laeven, Julien Pénasse & Yevhenii Usenko Date:September, 2025 Abstract: We study the mechanisms driving bank losses across historical banking crises in 46 economies and the effectiveness of policy interventions in restoring bank capitalization. We find that bank stocks experience large, permanent declines at the onset of crises. These losses predict commensurate long-term[…]

Author(s):Daniel Dias, Tim Schmidt-Eisenlohr Date:August, 2025 Abstract: We estimate the uninsured deposit premium – the difference between the rates paid on uninsured versus insured deposits – by linking observed average deposit rates to an estimated share of uninsured deposits. Using U.S. bank data from 1991 to 2025, we show that the average uninsured deposit premium[…]

Author(s):Angelos Athanasopoulos, Nicolò Fraccaroli, Andreas Kern & Davide Romelli Date:July 25, 2025 Abstract: This paper studies the impact of central bank independence on sovereign borrowing, using an index that captures institutional constraints on central bank lending to the government across 155 countries from 1972 to 2023. The findings show that tighter lending to the executive[…]