CfP Deadline: tbd Conference Event: October 30-31, 2025 Event Location: Paris, France Organizer(s): Kiel Institute for the World Economy CEPR Description: Link(s): 4th Kiel-CEPR Conference on Geoeconomics

Author(s):Karsten Müller, Chenzi Xu, Mohamed Lehbib & Ziliang Chen Date:February 11, 2025 Abstract: The Global Macro Database is an open-source, continuously updated dataset of macroeconomic statistics that unifies and extends existing resources. By harmonizing and integrating data from 32 major contemporary sources—including the IMF, World Bank, and OECD—with historical records from 78 additional datasets, we[…]

Author(s):Ralph De Haas, Mikhail Mamonov, Alexander Popov & Iliriana Shala Date:December 7, 2024 Abstract: How do violent conflicts affect cross-border lending? Using data on syndicated loans by over 14,000 creditors to firms in 179 countries between 1989-2020, we find that when violent conflict erupts in a country, foreign banks reduce overall lending relative to domestic[…]

Author(s):Rustam Jamilov, Tobias König, Karsten Müller, and Farzad Saidi Date:November, 2024 Abstract: We study bank runs using a novel historical cross-country dataset that covers 184 countries since 1800 and combines a new narrative chronology with statistical indicators of bank deposit withdrawals. We document the following facts: (i) the unconditional likelihood of a bank run is[…]

Author(s):Gustavo Cortes and Cameron LaPoint Date:November, 2024 Abstract: Does the housing market lead the financial cycle? We address this question by creating a new hand-collected database spanning a century of monthly building permit quantities and valuations for all U.S. states and the 60 largest MSAs. We show that the option to build embedded in permits[…]

Author(s):Swapan-Kumar Pradhan, Előd Takáts and Judit Temesvary Date:November 15, 2024 Abstract: We use a rarely accessed BIS database on bilateral cross-border bank claims by bank nationality to examine the interaction of monetary and fiscal policies. We find significant interactions: the transmission of the monetary policies of major currency issuers is significantly influenced by the fiscal[…]

Author(s):Sebastian Doerr Date:November 11, 2024 Abstract: The recent banking turmoil has renewed focus on banks’ branch networks and deposit taking activity. This paper provides novel evidence that the geographic diversification of banks’ deposit base enhances their funding stability. I establish that banks with greater diversification exhibit higher dispersion in deposit growth rates across their branches;[…]

Author(s):Bryan Hardy, Felipe Saffie & Ina Simonovska Date:8 October 2024 Abstract: Large firms borrow in foreign currency and are net providers of trade credit to firms in their supply chains. We model the transmission of exchange rate risk via firm balance sheets along the supply chain. Trade credit loosens borrowing constraints and allows for higher production. Furthermore, firms[…]

Author(s):Sergio A. Correia, Stephan Luck & Emil Verner Date:September 2024 Abstract: Why do banks fail? We create a panel covering most commercial banks from 1865 through 2023 to study the history of failing banks in the United States. Failing banks are characterized by rising asset losses, deteriorating solvency, and an increasing reliance on expensive non-core[…]

Author(s):Sergio Correia, Stephan Luck, and Emil Verner Date:September 2024 Abstract: Why do banks fail? We create a panel covering most commercial banks from 1865 through 2023 to study the history of failing banks in the United States. Failing banks are characterized by rising asset losses, deteriorating solvency, and an increasing reliance on expensive non-core funding.[…]