CEPR Discussion Paper – Violent Conflict and Cross-Border Lending

Author(s):Ralph De Haas, Mikhail Mamonov, Alexander Popov & Iliriana Shala Date:December 7, 2024 Abstract: How do violent conflicts affect cross-border lending? Using data on syndicated loans by over 14,000 creditors to firms in 179 countries between 1989-2020, we find that when violent conflict erupts in a country, foreign banks reduce overall lending relative to domestic[…]

Two Centuries of Systemic Bank Runs

Author(s):Rustam Jamilov, Tobias König, Karsten Müller, and Farzad Saidi Date:November, 2024 Abstract: We study bank runs using a novel historical cross-country dataset that covers 184 countries since 1800 and combines a new narrative chronology with statistical indicators of bank deposit withdrawals. We document the following facts: (i) the unconditional likelihood of a bank run is[…]

Housing Is the Financial Cycle: Evidence from 100 Years of Local Building Permits

Author(s):Gustavo Cortes and Cameron LaPoint Date:November, 2024 Abstract: Does the housing market lead the financial cycle? We address this question by creating a new hand-collected database spanning a century of monthly building permit quantities and valuations for all U.S. states and the 60 largest MSAs. We show that the option to build embedded in permits[…]

BIS Working Paper – How does fiscal policy affect the transmission of monetary policy into cross-border bank lending? Cross-country evidence

Author(s):Swapan-Kumar Pradhan, Előd Takáts and Judit Temesvary Date:November 15, 2024 Abstract: We use a rarely accessed BIS database on bilateral cross-border bank claims by bank nationality to examine the interaction of monetary and fiscal policies. We find significant interactions: the transmission of the monetary policies of major currency issuers is significantly influenced by the fiscal[…]

CEPR Discussion Paper – Bank Geographic Diversification and Funding Stability

Author(s):Sebastian Doerr Date:November 11, 2024 Abstract: The recent banking turmoil has renewed focus on banks’ branch networks and deposit taking activity. This paper provides novel evidence that the geographic diversification of banks’ deposit base enhances their funding stability. I establish that banks with greater diversification exhibit higher dispersion in deposit growth rates across their branches;[…]

BIS Working Paper – Trade credit and exchange rate risk pass through

Author(s):Bryan Hardy, Felipe Saffie & Ina Simonovska Date:8 October 2024 Abstract: Large firms borrow in foreign currency and are net providers of trade credit to firms in their supply chains. We model the transmission of exchange rate risk via firm balance sheets along the supply chain. Trade credit loosens borrowing constraints and allows for higher production. Furthermore, firms[…]

NBER Working Paper – Failing Banks

Author(s):Sergio A. Correia, Stephan Luck & Emil Verner Date:September 2024 Abstract: Why do banks fail? We create a panel covering most commercial banks from 1865 through 2023 to study the history of failing banks in the United States. Failing banks are characterized by rising asset losses, deteriorating solvency, and an increasing reliance on expensive non-core[…]

New York FED Staff Reports – Failing Banks

Author(s):Sergio Correia, Stephan Luck, and Emil Verner Date:September 2024 Abstract: Why do banks fail? We create a panel covering most commercial banks from 1865 through 2023 to study the history of failing banks in the United States. Failing banks are characterized by rising asset losses, deteriorating solvency, and an increasing reliance on expensive non-core funding.[…]

CEPR Discussion Paper – International Investment Income: Patterns, Drivers, and Heterogeneous Sensitivities

Author(s):Giovanni Donato, Cédric Tille Date:July 2024 Abstract: Financial globalization has led to a large increase in international asset holdings. While the rise of associated dividend and interest flows has until now been muted by the decreasing trend in interest rates, this pattern could change, leading to a larger role of investment income flows in the[…]

CEPR Discussion Paper – Intermediary Balance Sheet Constraints, Bond Mutual Funds’ Strategies, and Bond Returns

Author(s):Mariassunta Giannetti, Jotikasthira Chotibhak, Andreas Rapp, Martin Waibel Date:July 2024 Abstract: We show that after the introduction of the leverage ratio constraints on bank-affiliated dealers, bond mutual funds have engaged in more liquidity provision in investment-grade corporate bonds and that the performance of funds with liquidity-supplying strategies has benefited. Not only have regulations transferred profits[…]