By Cyril Couaillier, Valerio Scalone
This paper proposes a framework to jointly calibrate structural (constant) and cyclical (time varying) bank regulatory capital buffers. Its transparency helps to overcome the risk of omitting or double counting systemic risks when setting capital requirements. This approach consists in producing adverse macroeconomic scenarios whose severity is amplified under high cyclical risk. Risk-related adverse scenarios are fed into stress-tests to assess banks’ losses, should those scenarios materialise. The structural buffer is calibrated using a pre-defined reference risk level. The cyclical buffer is calibrated with respect to the additional losses obtained under the actual current risk level. Our approach is flexible enough to conceptually formalise different calibration approaches and policy preferences, e.g. concerning the choice between setting a positive or a null cyclical buffer in the medium phase of the financial cycle.