Author(s):Tommaso Gasparini, Vivien Lewis, Stéphane Moyen, Stefania Villa Date:March 2024 Abstract: Increases in firm default risk raise the default probability of banks while decreasing output and inflation in US data. To rationalize the empirical evidence, we analyse firm risk shocks in a New Keynesian model where entrepreneurs and banks engage in a loan contract and[…]
Author(s):Ezra Oberfield, Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, Nicholas Trachter & Derek T. Wenning Date:March 2024 Abstract: We study the spatial expansion of banks in response to banking deregulation in the 1980s and 90s. During this period, large banks expanded rapidly, mostly by adding new branches in new locations, while many small banks exited. We document that large banks[…]
Author(s):Victoria Ivashina, Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan, Luc Laeven, Karsten Müller Date:March 2024 Abstract: Using a new dataset on sectoral credit exposures covering financial and non-financial sectors in 115 economies over the period 1940–2014, we document the following evidence that corporate debt plays a key role in explaining boom-bust cycles, financial crises, and slow macroeconomic recoveries: (i) corporate[…]
Author(s):Charles W. Calomiris, Matthew S. Jaremski Date:March 2024 Abstract: The high social costs of financial crises imply that economists, policymakers, businesses, and households have a tremendous incentive to understand, and try to prevent them. And yet, so far we have failed to learn how to avoid them. In this article, we take a novel approach[…]
Author(s):Patrick McGuire, Goetz von Peter and Sonya Zhu Date:March 2024 Abstract: Statistics used in international economics generally adopt a residence view, centred on an economy and the units located there. This is natural for understanding the geography of capital flows and other macroeconomic issues. However, the system of national accounts does not reflect the extent[…]
Author(s):Daniel Fricke, Stefan Greppmair, Karol Paludkiewicz Date:February 2024 Abstract: We show that the transmission of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) recent monetary policy tightening differs across banks depending on their level of excess reserves. Specifically, the net worth of reserve-rich banks may display a boost when the interest rate paid on reserves increases strongly. Focusing[…]
Author(s):Enrico Perotti, Edoardo D. Martino Date:February 2024 Abstract: The rapid escalation in uninsured deposit runs in March 2023 prompted calls for stronger ex-ante prudential measures, such as higher capital and liquidity norms, as well as an EU proposal aimed at increasing the use of the resolution process. This Policy Insight proposes a framework prioritising bank[…]
Author(s):Lina Lu, Marco Macchiavelli, Jonathan Wallen Date:December 2023 Abstract: We study the internal and external capital markets of large U.S. bank holding companies. Within the bank holding company, commercial bank and dealer divisions have different investment opportunities, raise capital externally and actively share some capital internally. We develop and test a simple model where a[…]
Author(s):Jonas Becker, Maik Schmeling, Andreas Schrimpf Date:January 2024 Abstract: We estimate the impact of banks’ cross-currency lending on exchange rates to shed light on the importance of flows as a major force affecting FX market outcomes. When non-US banks extend more loans in US dollars (USD) relative to US banks originating foreign currency-denominated loans, the[…]
Author(s):Carol Bertaut, Valentina Bruno, Hyun Song Shin Date:January 2024 Abstract: We highlight the role of duration and exchange rate risks on portfolio flows by using a unique and comprehensive database of US investor flows into emerging market government bonds denominated in local currency. Borrowing long-term mitigates roll-over risk but amplifies valuation changes that further interact[…]