Working Papers

Author(s): Dohan Kim and Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti Date: January 2026 Abstract: Over the past two decades, many emerging market economies have become more resilient to external financial shocks. This paper assesses whether such resilience is broadly shared across emerging markets and developing economies by classifying them into three tiers based on economic size, income level, institutional strength, and financial integration. The analysis shows that first-tier emerging markets and developing economies have improved their external balance sheets and reduced dependence on official support. However, second- and third-tier emerging markets and developing economies have experienced growing external vulnerabilities since the global financial[…]

Author(s):Martin Kliem & Norbert Metiu Date:November, 2025 Abstract: Financial cycles, characterized by long-term fluctuations in credit and house prices, have profound implications for macro-financial stability. This study explores how systematic monetary policy can shape these cycles, offering insights into its potential to mitigate financial instability. Using U.S. data, we demonstrate that monetary policy can dampen financial cycles, particularly by counteracting house price movements, and show that such an approach could have significantly reduced the volatility of the U.S. housing market during the 2000s. As central banks increasingly incorporate financial stability into their mandates, this research provides a valuable framework for[…]

Author(s):Serkan Arslanalp, Barry Eichengreen & Chima Simpson-Bell Date:November, 2025 Abstract: We document some underappreciated aspects of the recent evolution of the international reserve system. These include the growing share of gold in global central bank reserves, the continuing emergence of nontraditional reserve currencies, and the stalling share of renminbi in reserves. These trends are consistent with our findings in our earlier papers. In addition we look to the future, pondering the potential implications of dollar-linked stablecoins, the expansion of the BRICS grouping of countries and their de- dollarization plans, the development of blockchain-based platforms such as Project mBridge for the[…]

Author(s):Sarah Quincy & Chenzi Xu Date:November, 2025 Abstract: We study the long-run effects of the first wave of U.S. banking market integration on capital mobility and manufacturing productivity. Using newly digitized bank and branch balance sheet data matched to state and county panels, we provide direct evidence that branching produced lasting productivity gains without aggregate capital deepening by leveraging internal capital markets to improve the geographic allocation of capital. Our novel “deposit market access” measure shows that bank funding grew most in capital-constrained counties within branching states. Both market access and border discontinuity designs indicate that branching’s organizational structure reduced[…]

Author(s):Giovanni Covi, Maren Froemel, Dennis Reinhardt and Nora Wegner Date:October 31, 2025 Abstract: How do banks respond to transition risk and which mechanisms drive this response? We shed new light on this question using data on granular international large exposures of UK banks. Climate policy is the main source of transition risk we use. We find that an increase in climate policy stringency on average leads to a decline in the share of lending that is exposed to transition risk. However, this finding is not uniform across banks: banks with a lower initial exposure to transition risk decrease their transition-risk[…]

Author(s):Olivier De Jonghe et al. Date:November, 2025 Abstract: We study heterogeneity in households’ credit across nine European countries (Belgium, Spain, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, Portugal, and Slovakia) during 2022-2024 using granular credit register data. We first document substantial between- and within-country variation in mortgage and consumer lending by borrower age, loan maturity, and interest rate fixation. We then quantify the pass- through of the ECB’s recent tightening cycle to household borrowing costs, and assess its heterogeneous impact across households. Pass-through is nearly complete for mortgages (around 0.9) but considerably weaker for consumer credit (around 0.4). While mortgage pass-through is[…]

Author(s):Lara Coulier, Cosimo Pancaro, Livia Pancotto & Alessio Reghezza Date:November, 2025 Abstract: How do banks manage the behavioural maturity of non-maturing deposits (NMDs)? Using a rich and confidential dataset, we investigate how banks model deposit maturities based on internal assumptions. Although NMDs are contractually floating-rate liabilities with zero maturity, banks reallocate them across different maturity buckets using models that reflect past customer behaviour. Notably, only 20% of NMDs are treated as having zero maturity, while about 10% are assigned maturities beyond seven years. We assess whether these modelling assumptions align with banks’ deposit structures. Results show that banks with more[…]

Author(s):Sergio A. Correia, Stephan Luck & Emil Verner Date:October, 2025 Abstract: This paper studies the role of banking supervision in anticipating, monitoring, and disciplining failing banks. We document that supervisors anticipate most bank failures with a high degree of accuracy. Supervisors play an important role in requiring troubled banks to recognize losses, taking enforcement actions, and ultimately closing failing banks. To establish causality, we exploit exogenous variation in supervisory strictness during the Global Financial Crisis. Stricter supervision leads to more loss recognition, reduced dividend payouts, and an increase in the likelihood and speed of closure. Increased strictness entails a trade-off[…]

Author(s):Matthew Baron, Luc Laeven, Julien Pénasse & Yevhenii Usenko Date:September, 2025 Abstract: We study the mechanisms driving bank losses across historical banking crises in 46 economies and the effectiveness of policy interventions in restoring bank capitalization. We find that bank stocks experience large, permanent declines at the onset of crises. These losses predict commensurate long-term declines in banks’ earnings and dividends, rather than elevated future equity returns. Bank losses are primarily driven by write-downs of nonperforming assets, not asset sales during panics. Forceful liquidity-based interventions during crises predict only small, temporary increases in bank market value. Overall, these results suggest[…]

Author(s):Daniel Dias, Tim Schmidt-Eisenlohr Date:August, 2025 Abstract: We estimate the uninsured deposit premium – the difference between the rates paid on uninsured versus insured deposits – by linking observed average deposit rates to an estimated share of uninsured deposits. Using U.S. bank data from 1991 to 2025, we show that the average uninsured deposit premium rose by nearly 400 basis points over this period. This rise reflects both falling insured deposit rates and rising uninsured deposit rates. We find a strong correlation with the monetary policy cycle: a one-percentage-point increase in the Federal Funds Rate corresponds to a rise of[…]

Author(s):Angelos Athanasopoulos, Nicolò Fraccaroli, Andreas Kern & Davide Romelli Date:July 25, 2025 Abstract: This paper studies the impact of central bank independence on sovereign borrowing, using an index that captures institutional constraints on central bank lending to the government across 155 countries from 1972 to 2023. The findings show that tighter lending to the executive significantly reduces sovereign interest rates and raises the debt-to-gross domestic product ratio in developing countries. These effects reflect the executive’s improved ability to borrow at lower costs under greater central bank independence. The results are robust to multiple tests, but there are no significant effects[…]

Author(s): Iñaki Aldasoro, Sebastian Doerr and Karamfil Todorov Date:July 9, 2025 Key Takeaways: Link:BIS Bulletin No 106: Retail investors in private credit

Author(s):Karsten Müller, Chenzi Xu, Mohamed Lehbib & Ziliang Chen Date:February 11, 2025 Abstract: The Global Macro Database is an open-source, continuously updated dataset of macroeconomic statistics that unifies and extends existing resources. By harmonizing and integrating data from 32 major contemporary sources—including the IMF, World Bank, and OECD—with historical records from 78 additional datasets, we construct comprehensive annual time series for 46 variables across 243 countries. This database covers global macroeconomic trends from the origins of modern data collection to projected estimates for 2030. Using this extensive database, we study the long-run output losses of financial crises and global temperature[…]

Author(s):Ralph De Haas, Mikhail Mamonov, Alexander Popov & Iliriana Shala Date:December 7, 2024 Abstract: How do violent conflicts affect cross-border lending? Using data on syndicated loans by over 14,000 creditors to firms in 179 countries between 1989-2020, we find that when violent conflict erupts in a country, foreign banks reduce overall lending relative to domestic banks but increase their lending to military firms. This effect is observed for both state and privately-owned foreign banks, and is stronger for banks with higher exposures to the conflict country and those domiciled in high-income countries outside the Western bloc. The relative increase in[…]

Author(s):Rustam Jamilov, Tobias König, Karsten Müller, and Farzad Saidi Date:November, 2024 Abstract: We study bank runs using a novel historical cross-country dataset that covers 184 countries since 1800 and combines a new narrative chronology with statistical indicators of bank deposit withdrawals. We document the following facts: (i) the unconditional likelihood of a bank run is 1.9%, and that of significant deposit withdrawals is 12.5%; (ii) systemic bank runs—those that are accompanied by deposit withdrawals— are associated with substantially larger output losses than non-systemic runs or deposit contractions alone; (iii) bank runs are contractionary even when they are not triggered by[…]

Author(s):Gustavo Cortes and Cameron LaPoint Date:November, 2024 Abstract: Does the housing market lead the financial cycle? We address this question by creating a new hand-collected database spanning a century of monthly building permit quantities and valuations for all U.S. states and the 60 largest MSAs. We show that the option to build embedded in permits renders volatility in residential building permit growth (BPG) a strong predictor of aggregate and cross-sectional stock and corporate bond return volatility. This predictability remains even after conditioning on a battery of factors, including corporateand household leverage and firms’ exposure through their network of plants to[…]

Author(s):Swapan-Kumar Pradhan, Előd Takáts and Judit Temesvary Date:November 15, 2024 Abstract: We use a rarely accessed BIS database on bilateral cross-border bank claims by bank nationality to examine the interaction of monetary and fiscal policies. We find significant interactions: the transmission of the monetary policies of major currency issuers is significantly influenced by the fiscal stance of source (home) lending banking systems. Fiscal consolidation in a source country amplifies the effect of currency issuers’ monetary policy on lending. For instance, a reduction in the German debt-to-GDP ratio amplifies the negative impact of US monetary policy tightening on USD-denominated cross-border bank[…]

Author(s):Sebastian Doerr Date:November 11, 2024 Abstract: The recent banking turmoil has renewed focus on banks’ branch networks and deposit taking activity. This paper provides novel evidence that the geographic diversification of banks’ deposit base enhances their funding stability. I establish that banks with greater diversification exhibit higher dispersion in deposit growth rates across their branches; and lower volatility in deposit growth rates over time. Subsequently, banks benefit from lower deposit rates, partly by shifting from time deposits to cheaper demand deposits. These patterns are consistent with diversification improving funding stability. I then show that deposit diversification spurs banks’ liquidity creation[…]

Author(s):Bryan Hardy, Felipe Saffie & Ina Simonovska Date:8 October 2024 Abstract: Large firms borrow in foreign currency and are net providers of trade credit to firms in their supply chains. We model the transmission of exchange rate risk via firm balance sheets along the supply chain. Trade credit loosens borrowing constraints and allows for higher production. Furthermore, firms are more likely to pass-through exchange rate shocks to their balance sheets onto their partners the more they are financially constrained. We validate these predictions using a quarterly firm panel for 19 emerging markets. Trade credit constitutes an important transmission mechanism of exchange rate shocks,[…]

Author(s):Sergio A. Correia, Stephan Luck & Emil Verner Date:September 2024 Abstract: Why do banks fail? We create a panel covering most commercial banks from 1865 through 2023 to study the history of failing banks in the United States. Failing banks are characterized by rising asset losses, deteriorating solvency, and an increasing reliance on expensive non-core funding. Commonalities across failing banks imply that failures are highly predictable using simple accounting metrics from publicly available financial statements. Predictability is high even in the absence of deposit insurance, when depositor runs were common. Bank-level fundamentals also forecast aggregate waves of bank failures during[…]

Author(s):Sergio Correia, Stephan Luck, and Emil Verner Date:September 2024 Abstract: Why do banks fail? We create a panel covering most commercial banks from 1865 through 2023 to study the history of failing banks in the United States. Failing banks are characterized by rising asset losses, deteriorating solvency, and an increasing reliance on expensive non-core funding. Commonalities across failing banks imply that failures are highly predictable using simple accounting metrics from publicly available financial statements. Predictability is high even in the absence of deposit insurance, when depositor runs were common. Bank-level fundamentals also forecast aggregate waves of bank failures during systemic[…]

Author(s):Giovanni Donato, Cédric Tille Date:July 2024 Abstract: Financial globalization has led to a large increase in international asset holdings. While the rise of associated dividend and interest flows has until now been muted by the decreasing trend in interest rates, this pattern could change, leading to a larger role of investment income flows in the balance of payments. We use a broad sample of countries to document the heterogeneous evolution of the various components of investment income flows, with a rising role of FDI and equity income, especially in advanced economies. We then assess the impact of various variables on[…]

Author(s):Mariassunta Giannetti, Jotikasthira Chotibhak, Andreas Rapp, Martin Waibel Date:July 2024 Abstract: We show that after the introduction of the leverage ratio constraints on bank-affiliated dealers, bond mutual funds have engaged in more liquidity provision in investment-grade corporate bonds and that the performance of funds with liquidity-supplying strategies has benefited. Not only have regulations transferred profits associated with liquidity provision in the corporate bond market to mutual funds, but the liquidity and returns of investment-grade corporate bonds have become more exposed to redemptions from the bond mutual fund industry, suggesting that the regulations have made investment-grade corporate bonds more volatile. Accordingly,[…]

Author(s):Eugenio Cerutti, Stijn Claessens Date:July 2024 Abstract: We quantify the importance of the Global Financial Cycle (GFCy) in domestic credit and various local asset prices and compare it with that in capital flows. Using 2000-2021 data for 76 economies and a simple methodology, we find that each respective series’ common factor and conventional US GFCy-drivers together typically explain about 30 percent of the variation in domestic credit, up to 40 percent in stock market returns, about 60 percent in house prices, and more than 75 percent in interest rates and government bond spreads. These median estimates much exceed the 25[…]

Author(s):Clemens M. Graf von Luckner, Josefin Meyer, Carmen M. Reinhart & Christoph Trebesch Date:June 2024 Abstract: We study sovereign external debt crises over the past 200 years, with a focus on creditor losses, or “haircuts”. Our sample covers 327 sovereign debt restructurings with external private creditors over 205 default spells since 1815. Creditor losses vary widely (from none to 100%), but the statistical distribution has remained remarkably stable over two centuries, with an average haircut of around 45 percent. The data also reveal that “serial restructurings”, meaning two or more debt exchanges in the same default spell, are on the[…]

Author(s):Marco Cipriani, Thomas M. Eisenbach and Anna Kovner Date:May 2024 Abstract: We use high-frequency interbank payments data to trace deposit flows in March 2023 and identify twenty-two banks that suffered a run, significantly more than the two that failed but fewer than the number that experienced large negative stock returns. The runs were driven by large (institutional) depositors, rather than many small (retail) depositors. While the runs were related to weak fundamentals, we find evidence for the importance of coordination because run banks were disproportionately publicly traded and many banks with similarly bad fundamentals did not suffer a run. Banks[…]

Author(s):Carlos Madeira Date:May 2024 Abstract: This paper analyses the causal impact of macroprudential policies on growth, using industry-leveldata for 89 countries for the period 1990 to 2021. The small industry size creates an exogenous identification and avoids reverse-causality. I find that macroprudential tightening measures have a negative impact on manufacturing growth, but only for industries with high external finance dependence. This effect is stronger during banking crises, periods of higher output growth and for advanced economies. The effect is weaker during period of high private credit growth. Growth effects on externally dependent industries are economically sizeable and can persist overthree[…]

Author(s):Stephen G. Cecchetti & Jens Hilscher Date:May 2024 Abstract: In response to the Global Financial Crisis, central banks engaged in large-scale asset purchases funded by the issuance of reserves. These “unconventional” policies continued during the pandemic, so that by 2022 central banks’ balance sheets had grown up to ten-fold. As a result of rapidly increasing interest rates, these massive portfolios began producing substantial losses. We interpret these losses as fiscal policy consequences of quantitative easing and stress that they must be balanced against the prior benefits of implementing purchase policies. Importantly, losses differ qualitatively depending on whether the central bank[…]

Author(s):Joao Granja, Erica Xuewei Jiang, Gregor Matvos, Tomasz Piskorski, Amit Seru Date:April 2024 Abstract: In the face of rising interest rates in 2022, banks mitigated interest rate exposure of the accounting value of their assets but left the vast majority of their long-duration assets exposed to interest rate risk. Data from call reports and SEC filings shows that only 6% of U.S. banking assets used derivatives to hedge their interest rate risk, and even heavy users of derivatives left most assets unhedged. The banks most vulnerable to asset declines and solvency runs decreased existing hedges, focusing on short-term gains but[…]

Author(s):Rashad Ahmed Date:March 2024 Abstract: Foreign deposits are a key funding source for US commercial banks but subject to a different degree of interest rate risk than domestic deposits. Specifically, foreign deposit betas are significantly larger than domestic deposit betas, implying that the former has shorter effective duration. Larger foreign deposit betas imply that the pass-through of monetary policy to bank funding costs rises and the duration of bank liabilities shortens as the foreign deposit share grows. Causal evidence exploiting granular bank-level foreign deposits suggests that banks respond to duration mismatch arising from larger foreign deposit shares by reducing holdings[…]

Author(s):Greg Buchak, Gregor Matvos, Tomasz Piskorski & Amit Seru Date:February 2024 Abstract: The traditional model of bank-led financial intermediation, where banks issue demandable deposits to savers and make informationally sensitive loans to borrowers, has seen a dramatic decline since 1970s. Instead, private credit is increasingly intermediated through arms-length transactions, such as securitization. This paper documents these trends, explores their causes, and discusses their implications for the financial system and regulation. We document that the balance sheet share of overall private lending has declined from 60% in 1970 to 35% in 2023, while the deposit share of savings has declined from[…]

Author(s):Claudia M. Buch, Linda S. Goldberg Date:March 2024 Abstract: Global liquidity flows are largely channeled through banks and nonbank financial institutions. The common drivers of global liquidity flows include monetary policy in advanced economies and risk conditions. At the same time, the sensitivities of liquidity flows to changes in these drivers differ across institutions and have been evolving over time. Microprudential regulation of banks plays a role, influencing leverage and capitalization, changing sensitivities to shocks, and also driving risk migration from banks to nonbank financial institutions. Risk sensitivities and flightiness of global liquidity are now strongest in more leveraged nonbank[…]

Author(s):Roland Beck, Antonio Coppola, Angus J. Lewis, Matteo Maggiori, Martin Schmitz & Jesse Schreger Date:March 2024 Abstract: We assess the pattern of Euro Area financial integration adjusting for the role of “onshore offshore financial centers” (OOFCs) within the Euro Area. The OOFCs of Luxembourg, Ireland, and the Netherlands serve dual roles as both hubs of investment fund intermediation and centers of securities issuance by foreign firms. We provide new estimates of Euro Area countries’ bilateral portfolio investments which look through both roles, attributing the wealth held via investment funds to the underlying holders and linking securities issuance to the ultimate[…]

Author(s):Matthew S. Jaremski, Steven Sprick Schuster Date:March 2024 Abstract: The lack of universal deposit insurance coverage can create liquidity risk during financial crises. This aspect of deposit insurance is hard to test in modern data because of the broad coverage of most systems. We, therefore, study the role that the U.S. Postal Savings System played in commercial bank closures during the Great Depression. The system offered households a federally insured deposit account at post offices throughout the nation, and its structure provides a near-ideal environment to identify this competitive liquidity risk during a crisis. We find that banks that operated[…]

Author(s):Viral Acharya, Nicola Cetorelli, Bruce Tuckman Date:March 2024 Abstract: In recent years, assets of non-bank financial intermediaries (NBFIs) have grown significantly relative to those of banks. These two sectors are commonly viewed either as operating in parallel, performing different activities, or as substitutes, performing substantially similar activities, with banks inside and NBFIs outside the perimeter of banking regulation. We argue instead that NBFI and bank businesses and risks are so interwoven that they are better described as having transformed over time rather than as having migrated from banks to NBFIs. These transformations are at least in part a response to[…]

Author(s):Sandra Eickmeier, Josefine Quast, Yves Schüler Date:March 2024 Abstract: We examine how natural disasters impact the US economy and financial markets using monthly data since 2000. Our analysis reveals large sustained adverse effects of disasters on overall economic activity, with significant implications across various sectors including labor, production, consumption, investment, and housing. Our findings suggest that these effects stem from heightened financial risk, increased uncertainty, declining confidence and heightened awareness of climate change, leading to negative repercussions on the economy. Additionally, consumer prices increase temporarily, likely due to rising energy and food costs. We find a decline in the monetary[…]

Author(s):Tommaso Gasparini, Vivien Lewis, Stéphane Moyen, Stefania Villa Date:March 2024 Abstract: Increases in firm default risk raise the default probability of banks while decreasing output and inflation in US data. To rationalize the empirical evidence, we analyse firm risk shocks in a New Keynesian model where entrepreneurs and banks engage in a loan contract and both are subject to default risk. In the model, a wave of corporate defaults leads to losses on banks’ balance sheets; banks respond by selling assets and reducing credit provision. A highly leveraged banking sector exacerbates the contractionary effects of firm defaults. We show that[…]

Author(s):Ezra Oberfield, Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, Nicholas Trachter & Derek T. Wenning Date:March 2024 Abstract: We study the spatial expansion of banks in response to banking deregulation in the 1980s and 90s. During this period, large banks expanded rapidly, mostly by adding new branches in new locations, while many small banks exited. We document that large banks sorted into the densest markets, but that sorting weakened over time as large banks expanded to more marginal markets in search of locations with a relative abundance of retail deposits. This allowed large banks to reduce their dependence on expensive wholesale funding and grow further.[…]

Author(s):Victoria Ivashina, Ṣebnem Kalemli-Özcan, Luc Laeven, Karsten Müller Date:March 2024 Abstract: Using a new dataset on sectoral credit exposures covering financial and non-financial sectors in 115 economies over the period 1940–2014, we document the following evidence that corporate debt plays a key role in explaining boom-bust cycles, financial crises, and slow macroeconomic recoveries: (i) corporate debt accounts for two thirds of the aggregate credit expansion before crises and three quarters of total nonperforming loans during the bust; (ii) expansions in corporate debt predict crises similarly to household debt; (iii) a measure of imbalance in credit growth flowing disproportionately to some[…]

Author(s):Charles W. Calomiris, Matthew S. Jaremski Date:March 2024 Abstract: The high social costs of financial crises imply that economists, policymakers, businesses, and households have a tremendous incentive to understand, and try to prevent them. And yet, so far we have failed to learn how to avoid them. In this article, we take a novel approach to studying financial crises. We first build ten case studies of financial crises that stretch over two millennia, and then consider their salient points of differences and commonalities. We see this as the beginning of developing a useful taxonomy of crises – an understanding of[…]

Author(s):Patrick McGuire, Goetz von Peter and Sonya Zhu Date:March 2024 Abstract: Statistics used in international economics generally adopt a residence view, centred on an economy and the units located there. This is natural for understanding the geography of capital flows and other macroeconomic issues. However, the system of national accounts does not reflect the extent of globalisation and the rise of multinational firms and financial intermediaries. Their balance sheets straddle national borders, and their decisions affect many countries in ways that are obscured in residence statistics. This feature uses BIS statistics to show how a nationality view, which groups balance[…]

Author(s):Daniel Fricke, Stefan Greppmair, Karol Paludkiewicz Date:February 2024 Abstract: We show that the transmission of the European Central Bank’s (ECB) recent monetary policy tightening differs across banks depending on their level of excess reserves. Specifically, the net worth of reserve-rich banks may display a boost when the interest rate paid on reserves increases strongly. Focusing on the ECB’s 2022 rate hiking cycle, we show that reserve-rich banks’ credit supply is less sensitive to the monetary policy tightening compared to other banks. The effect varies in the cross-section of both banks and firms. The results are binding at the firm level,[…]

Author(s):Enrico Perotti, Edoardo D. Martino Date:February 2024 Abstract: The rapid escalation in uninsured deposit runs in March 2023 prompted calls for stronger ex-ante prudential measures, such as higher capital and liquidity norms, as well as an EU proposal aimed at increasing the use of the resolution process. This Policy Insight proposes a framework prioritising bank recovery over resolution. It aims to help solvent but undercapitalised banks recover early, enhance supervisory powers’ credibility, and ensure effective implementation of private bail-in requirements. Activation of these measures, based on specific indicators, would facilitate the recovery of viable yet undercapitalised banks. Link: CEPR Policy[…]

Author(s):Lina Lu, Marco Macchiavelli, Jonathan Wallen Date:December 2023 Abstract: We study the internal and external capital markets of large U.S. bank holding companies. Within the bank holding company, commercial bank and dealer divisions have different investment opportunities, raise capital externally and actively share some capital internally. We develop and test a simple model where a bank division raises funding from both internal and external capital markets subject to frictions. Empirically, we measure marginal returns to dealer investment opportunities using arbitrage spreads. We show that when spreads widen, the dealer raises additional capital through both internal and external markets. The dealer[…]

Author(s):Jonas Becker, Maik Schmeling, Andreas Schrimpf Date:January 2024 Abstract: We estimate the impact of banks’ cross-currency lending on exchange rates to shed light on the importance of flows as a major force affecting FX market outcomes. When non-US banks extend more loans in US dollars (USD) relative to US banks originating foreign currency-denominated loans, the USD appreciates significantly. When a foreign bank grants a cross-currency USD loan, it needs to obtain USD liquidity which puts pressure on funding markets and leads to an appreciation of USD. This effect – which we estimate via a granular instrumental variable approach – has[…]

Author(s):Carol Bertaut, Valentina Bruno, Hyun Song Shin Date:January 2024 Abstract: We highlight the role of duration and exchange rate risks on portfolio flows by using a unique and comprehensive database of US investor flows into emerging market government bonds denominated in local currency. Borrowing long-term mitigates roll-over risk but amplifies valuation changes that further interact with currency movements. Our analysis highlights the double-edged nature of long-term borrowing and draws attention to market stress dynamics due to strategic complementarities among mutual fund investors. Link: CEPR Discussion Paper No. 18757: Original Sin Redux: Role of Duration Risk

Author(s):Jonas Becker, Maik Schmeling, Andreas Schrimpf Date:January 2024 Abstract: We estimate the impact of banks’ cross-currency lending on exchange rates to shed light on the importance of flows as a major force affecting FX market outcomes. When non-US banks extend more loans in US dollars (USD) relative to US banks originating foreign currency-denominated loans, the USD appreciates significantly. When a foreign bank grants a cross-currency USD loan, it needs to obtain USD liquidity which puts pressure on funding markets and leads to an appreciation of USD. This effect – which we estimate via a granular instrumental variable approach – has greatly intensified[…]

Author(s):Di Gong, Thomas Lambert, Wolf Wagner Date:November 2023 Abstract: This paper provides novel evidence for informational advantages of local bank supervision, outweighing biases due to the pursuit of local interests. For identification, we exploit a policy reform in China that moved supervision for a subset of bank branches from the national to the city level. Following the reform, these branches were 50 to 74% more likely to face an enforcement action. The tighter local supervision results in more conservative lending by banks, reducing in turn aggregate loan supply in cities with more local supervision. Our findings inform the debate on[…]

Author(s):Karsten Müller & Emil Verner Date:June 2023 Abstract: We study the relationship between credit expansions, macroeconomic fluctuations, and financial crises using a novel database on the sectoral distribution of private credit for 117 countries since 1940. We document that, during credit booms, credit flows disproportionately to the non-tradable sector. Credit expansions to the non-tradable sector, in turn, systematically predict subsequent growth slowdowns and financial crises. In contrast, credit expansions to the tradable sector are associated with sustained output and productivity growth without a higher risk of a financial crisis. To understand these patterns, we show that firms in the non-tradable[…]

Author(s):Yadav Gopalan, Joao Granja Date:September 2023 Abstract: We investigate how effective was bank supervision before, during, and after the monetary tightening of 2022. We find that bank supervisors were aware of the interest rate risks that were emerging in the banking system and began downgrading the ratings of banks with significant exposures to such risks as early as the second quarter of 2022. We do not find that bank supervisors were more likely to downgrade banks whose excessive reliance on uninsured deposits posed liquidity risks. Rating downgrades were associated with subsequent declines in exposures to interest rate risks and with[…]

Author(s):Sergio Florez-Orrego, Matteo Maggiori, Jesse Schreger, Ziwen Sun, Serdil Tinda Date:September 2023 Abstract: We survey the literature on global capital allocation. We begin by reviewing the rise of cross-border investment, the shift towards portfolio investment, and the literature focusing on aggregate patterns in multilateral and bilateral positions. We then turn to the recent literature that uses micro-data to document patterns in global capital allocations. We focus on the importance of the currency of denomination of assets in international portfolios and the role that tax havens and offshore financial centers play in intermediating global capital. We conclude with directions for future[…]

Author(s):Balduin Bippus, Simon Lloyd & Daniel Ostry Date:September 2023 Abstract: Using data on the external assets and liabilities of global banks based in the UK, the world’s largest centre for international banking, we identify exogenous cross-border banking flows by constructing novel granular instrumental variables. In line with the predictions of a new granular international banking model, we show empirically that cross-border flows have a significant causal impact on exchange rates. A 1% increase in UK-based global banks’ net external US dollar-debt position appreciates the dollar by 2% against sterling. While we estimate that the supply of dollars from abroad is[…]

Author(s):Erica Jiang, Gregor Matvos, Tomasz Piskorski & Amit Seru Date:March 2020 (revised September 2023) Abstract: We ask how much leverage banks would choose in the absence of safety nets tied to insured deposits. Using uniquely assembled data on capital structure decisions of shadow banks – intermediaries that provide banking services but are not funded by insured deposits – we document five facts. (1) Shadow banks use twice as much equity capital as equivalent banks but are substantially more leveraged than non-financial firms. (2) Leverage across shadow banks is substantially more dispersed than leverage across banks. (3) Like banks, shadow banks[…]

Author(s):Hans Degryse, Mike Mariathasan, Carola Theunisz Date:September 2023 Abstract: This paper investigates the intra-group transmission of stricter capital regulation imposed at the banking group level. Specifically, we study how a policy-induced increase in the regulatory capital ratio impacts the capital adequacy composition, lending and risk-taking of the affiliated subsidiaries. Using a combination of bank and loan-level data, we find that once a banking group faces tighter consolidated capital requirements, the recapitalization efforts are concentrated at the subsidiary- as opposed to the headquarters-level. Subsidiaries reduce risk-weighted assets in part through a reduction in credit supply. This contraction is more pronounced at[…]

Author(s):Anatoli Segura, Javier Suarez Date:September 2023 Abstract: We study restructuring solutions to the debt overhang problem faced by banks with a deteriorated loan portfolio in the presence of asymmetric information on loan quality. Classical liability restructuring solutions fail to work because banks can overstate the severity of their bad loan problem to obtain additional concessions from existing creditors. A sufficiently large loan sale requirement to the restructuring banks discourages such an opportunistic behavior, so a suitably chosen menu of loan sales cum liability restructuring is able to solve the debt overhang. We discuss the implementation of such a solution for[…]

Author(s):Damiano Sandri, Francesco Grigoli, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Olivier Coibion Date:September 2023 Abstract: Using a survey with information treatments conducted in the aftermath of SVB’s collapse, we study households’ perspectives on bank stability, the potential for panic-driven bank runs, and the role of public communication. When informed about SVB’s collapse, households become more likely to withdraw deposits, due to both a higher perceived risk of bank failure and higher expected losses on deposits in case of bank failure. Leveraging hypothetical questions and the exogenous variation in beliefs generated by the information treatments, we show that households reallocate deposit withdrawals primarily into other[…]

Author(s):Sandra Eickmeier, Benedikt Kolb, Esteban Prieto Date:August 2023 Abstract: Using a narrative identification strategy, we trace the dynamic effects of higher US capital requirements to bank lending and the real economy. In the short run, banks deleverage and reduce lending, which in turn lowers real economic activity. However, these effects are temporary. Over the longer run, we document a permanent shift in the funding structure of banks towards more equity financing, less debt funding and a less risky portfolio allocation. Bank assets, lending and economic activity recover to their pre-regulation values within less than four years, while bank risk, risk[…]

Author(s):Ben S. Meiselman, Stefan Nagel, Amiyatosh Purnanandam Date:August 2023 Abstract: In competitive capital markets, risky debt claims that offer high yields in good times have high systematic risk exposure in bad times. We apply this idea to bank risk measurement. We find that banks with high accounting return on equity (ROE) prior to a crisis have higher systematic tail risk exposure during the crisis. Proximate causes of crises differ, but the predictive power of ROE is pervasive, including during the financial crisis of 2007–2010 and the recent crisis triggered by the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. ROE predicts systematic tail[…]

Author(s):Sergio Florez-Orrego, Matteo Maggiori, Jesse Schreger, Ziwen Sun, Serdil Tinda Date:August 2023 Abstract: We survey the literature on global capital allocation. We begin by reviewing the rise of cross-border investment, the shift towards portfolio investment, and the literature focusing on aggregate patterns in multilateral and bilateral positions. We then turn to the recent literature that uses micro-data to document patterns in global capital allocations. We focus on the importance of the currency of denomination of assets in international portfolios and the role that tax havens and offshore financial centers play in intermediating global capital. We conclude with directions for future[…]

Author(s):Maria Arakelyan, Adam Gersl, Martin Schindler Date:August 2023 Abstract: In this paper we assess the effectiveness of macroprudential policies and capital controls in supporting financial stability. We construct a large and granular dataset on prudential and capital flow management measures covering 53 countries during 1996-2016. Conditional on a credit boom, we study the impact of these policy measures on the probability of the credit boom ending in a bust. Our analysis suggests that macroprudential tools are effective from this perspective. If credit booms are accompanied by capital flow surges, in addition to macroprudential tools, capital controls on money market instruments[…]

Author(s):Kris James Mitchener, Angela Vossmeyer Date:August 2023 Abstract: We examine how financial crises redistribute risk, employing novel empirical methods and micro data from the largest financial crisis of the 20th century – the Great Depression. Using balance-sheet and systemic risk measures at the bank level, we build an econometric model with incidental truncation that jointly considers bank survival, the type of bank closure (consolidations, absorption, and failures), and changes to bank risk. Despite roughly 9,000 bank closures, risk did not leave the financial system; instead, it increased. We show that risk was redistributed to banks that were healthier prior to[…]

Author(s):Menzie D. Chinn, Hiro Ito Date:July 2023 Abstract: We assess market mediated financial integration over the last fifty years. We first systematically lay out several definitions of financial integration, and then review the evidence regarding whether covered interest parity, uncovered interest parity, and real interest parity hold across industrial and non-industrial countries. Finally we examine what the determinants of real interest differentials are. Link: NBER Working Paper, No 31505 – Measuring Financial Integration: More Data, More Countries, More Expectations

Author(s):Fernando Arce, Julien Bengui, Javier Bianchi Date:July 2023 Abstract: In this paper, we revisit the scope for macroprudential policy in production economies with pecuniary externalities and collateral constraints. We study competitive equilibria and constrained-efficient equilibria and examine the extent to which the gap between the two depends on the production structure and the policy instruments available to the planner. We argue that macroprudential policy is desirable regardless of whether the competitive equilibrium features more or less borrowing than the constrained-efficient equilibrium. In our quantitative analysis, macroprudential taxes on borrowing turn out to be larger when the government has access to[…]

Author(s):Li Lian Ong, Christian Schmieder, Min Wei Date:June 2023 Abstract: Credit risk has played a significant role as a catalyst or key factor in many financial crises, including the great financial crisis. More recently, the COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the importance of potential bank credit losses to the private sector. However, there remains a significant gap in terms of reliable economy-level credit risk data for financial stability analysis, given that such information is not publicly available in any systematic manner. We discuss the various credit loss concepts and estimate a time series database of actual as well as forward-looking market- and[…]

Author(s):Isil Erel, Jack Liebersohn, Constantine Yannelis, Samuel Earnest Date:June 2023 Abstract: Financial technology has reshaped commercial banking. It has the potential to radically alter the transmission of monetary policy by lowering search costs and expanding bank markets. This paper studies the reaction of online banks to changes in federal fund rates. We find that these banks increase rates that they offer on deposits significantly more than traditional banks do. A 100 basis points increase in the federal fund rate leads to a 30 basis points larger increase in rates of online banks. Consistent with the rate movements, online bank deposits[…]

Author(s):Toni Ahnert, Peter Hoffmann, Agnese Leonello, Davide Porcellacchia Date:June 2023 Abstract: What is the effect of Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC) on financial stability? We answer this question by studying a model of financial intermediation with an endogenously determined probability of a bank run and a remunerated CBDC that provides consumers with an alternative to bank deposits. Consistent with concerns among policymakers, higher CBDC remuneration raises bank fragility by increasing consumers’ withdrawal incentives. However, it also induces the bank to offer more attractive deposit contracts in an effort to retain funding, which reduces fragility. Accordingly, the overall relationship between bank[…]

Author(s):Toni Ahnert, Gideon DuRand, Co-Pierre Georg Date:June 2023 Abstract: We examine the incidence of financial contagion, bank choices, welfare, and regulation when interconnected banks anticipate an aggregate liquidity shock. Revisiting the seminal paper of Allen and Gale (2000), interbank deposits allow banks to co-insure against regional liquidity shocks but can also lead to contagion—the mutual default of banks. We numerically characterize the equilibrium and find that contagion is rare. Moreover, the equilibrium is constrained inefficient. For less likely aggregate liquidity shocks, banks hold inefficiently large interbank positions that over-expose surviving banks to impaired returns from failing banks when resolution occurs[…]

Author(s):Puriya Abbassi, Rajkamal Iyer, Jose-Luis Peydro, Paul E. Soto Date:April 2023 Abstract: We study short-term and medium-term changes in bank risk-taking as a result of supervision, and the associated real effects. For identification, we exploit the European Central Bank’s asset-quality-review (AQR) in conjunction with security and credit registers. After the AQR announcement, reviewed banks reduce riskier securities and credit supply, with the greatest effect on riskiest securities. We find negative spillovers on asset prices and firm-level credit availability. Moreover, non-banks with higher exposure to reviewed banks acquire the shed risk. After the AQR compliance, reviewed banks reload riskier securities but[…]

Author(s):Ziang Li, Jihong Song Date:February 2023 Abstract: We document a novel fact about the cross-section of banks’ risk-taking behavior — banks with high deposit market power take on significantly less credit risk. In particular, the loan portfolios of high-market-power banks are much safer than those of low-market-power banks. This persistent relationship is not driven by the size, funding structure, loan market power, or geography of banks. Consequently, high-market-power banks earn higher profits, are less exposed to business cycle fluctuations, and sustain smaller losses in recessions. We propose a model where deposit market power increases banks’ franchise value and induces them[…]

Author(s):Kristian Blickle, Cecilia Parlatore, Anthony Saunders Date:March 2023 Abstract: Using supervisory data on the loan portfolios of large US banks, we document that these banks specialize by concentrating their lending disproportionately in a few industries. This specialization is consistent with banks having industry-specific knowledge, reflected in reduced risk of loan defaults, lower aggregate charge-offs, and higher propensity to lend to opaque firms in the preferred industry. Banks attract high-quality borrowers by offering generous loan terms in their specialized industry, especially to borrowers with alternative options. Banks focus on their preferred industry in times of instability and relatively lower tier 1[…]

Author(s):Carlo Wix Date:March 2023 Abstract: I study the long-run effects of credit market disruptions on real firm outcomes and how these effects depend on nominal wage rigidity at the firm level. Exploiting variation in firms’ refinancing needs during the global financial crisis, I trace out firms’ investment and growth trajectories in response to a credit supply shock. Financially shocked firms exhibit a temporary investment gap for two years, resulting in a persistent accumulated growth gap six years after the crisis. Shocked firms with rigid wages exhibit a significantly steeper drop in investment and an additional long-run growth gap relative to[…]

Author(s):Kamelia Kosekova, Angela Maddaloni, Melina Papoutsi, Fabiano Schivardi Date:June 2023 Abstract: We document the structure of firm-bank relationships across eleven euro area countries and present new stylised facts using data from the Eurosystem credit registry – AnaCredit. We look at the number of banking relationships, reliance on the main bank, credit instruments, loan maturity, and interest rates. Firms in Southern Europe borrow from more banks and obtain a lower share of credit from the main bank than those in Northern Europe. They also tend to borrow more on short term, more expensive instruments and to obtain loans with shorter maturity.[…]

Author(s):Tomás E. Caravello, Pedro Martinez-Bruera, Iván Werning Date:June 2023 Abstract: This study explores the consequences of dollarizing an economy with an initial dollar shortage. We show that the resulting transitional dynamics are tantamount to that of a “sudden stop”: consumption of tradable goods fall, the real exchange rate depreciates abruptly by a discrete drop in domestic prices and wages followed by a gradual appreciation from positive inflation. With nominal rigidities the economy first falls into a recession. This is true even if all prices and wages are allowed to adjust flexibly on impact. The subsequent recovery in activity always “overshoots”[…]

Author(s):Michael Ehrmann, Phillipp Gnan, Kilian Rieder Date:May 2023 Abstract: Leaks of confidential information emanating from public institutions have been the focus of a longstanding line of research. Yet, their determinants as well as their potential impact on public views and on policy effectiveness remain elusive. We construct a database of anonymous monetary policy leaks in the euro area as reported by newswires. We provide evidence that many of these leaks are likely placed by individual insiders with minority opinions. Central banks offer a unique setting to study the effects of leaks because associated changes in public views are instantaneously reflected[…]

Author(s):Sergi Basco, Giulia Felice, Bruno Merlevede, Martí Mestieri Date:May 2023 Abstract: This paper empirically examines the effects of financial crises on the organization of production of multinational enterprises. We construct a panel of European multinational networks from 2003 through 2015. We use as a financial shock the increase in risk premia between August 2007 and July 2012 and build a multinational-specific shock based on the network structure before the shock. Multinationals facing a larger financial shock perform worse in terms of revenue, employment, and growth in the number of affiliates. Lower growth in the number of affiliates operates through a[…]

Author(s):Kristin Forbes, Christian Friedrich, Dennis Reinhardt Date:May 2023 Abstract: This paper explores the relationship between different funding structures—including the source, instrument, currency, and counterparty location of funding—and the extent of financial stress experienced in different countries and sectors during the sharp risk-off shock in early 2020 when Covid-19 spread globally. We measure financial stress using a new dataset on changes in credit default swap spreads for sovereigns, banks, and corporates. Then we use country-sector and country-sector-time panels to assess how different funding structures are related to financial stress. A higher share of funding from non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs) or in[…]

Author(s):Matthew S. Jaremski, David C. Wheelock Date:May 2023 Abstract: This paper provides quantitative evidence on interbank transmission of financial distress in the Panic of 1907 and ensuing recession. Originating in New York City, the panic led to payment suspensions and emergency currency issuance in many cities. Data on the universe of interbank connections show that i) suspension was more likely in cities whose banks had closer ties to banks at the center of the panic, ii) banks with such links were more likely to close in the panic and recession, and iii) banks responded to the panic by rearranging their[…]

Author(s):Katharina Bergant, Prachi Mishra, Raghuram Rajan Date:May 2023 Abstract: We find that financial conditions in the core have significant spillover effects on cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&As). On average, a 1 percentage point easing of the IMF US Financial Conditions Index is associated with approximately a 10% higher volume of cross-border M&As. The spillovers are stronger for countries with more liabilities denominated in foreign currency (or in US dollars). We find that the spillovers are driven by changes in US financial conditions, rather than changes in Euro Area conditions. Deals that happen when financial conditions in the US are tighter[…]

Author(s):Katharina Bergant, Francesco Grigoli, Niels-Jakob Hansen and Damiano Sandri Date:May 2023 Abstract: We show that macroprudential regulation significantly dampens the impact of global financial shocks on emerging markets. Specifically, a tighter level of regulation reduces the sensitivity of GDP growth to capital flow shocks and movements in the VIX. A broad set of macroprudential tools contributes to this result, including measures targeting bank capital and liquidity, foreign currency mismatches, and risky credit. We also find that tighter macroprudential regulation allows monetary policy to respond more countercyclically to global financial shocks. This could be an important channel through which macroprudential regulation[…]

Author(s):Bryan Hardy and Felipe Saffie Date:April 2023 Abstract: We use unique firm-level data from Mexico to document that non-financial corporations engage in carry trades by borrowing in foreign currency (FX) and lending in domestic currency, largely in the form of trade credit, accumulating currency risk in the process. We show at a quarterly frequency that the practice of borrowing in FX and extending trade credit is more prevalent when foreign currency borrowing is relatively cheaper than local currency borrowing, and it is associated with expansions in both gross trade credit and sales. Firms that were more active in carry-trades, accumulating[…]

Author(s):Lihong McPhail, Philipp Schnabl & Bruce Tuckman Date:April 2023 Abstract: We ask whether banks use interest rate swaps to hedge the interest rate risk of their assets, primarily loans and securities. To this end, we use regulatory data on individual swap positions for the largest 250 U.S. banks. We find that the average bank has a large notional amount of swaps– $434 billion, or more than 10 times assets. But after accounting for the significant extent to which swap positions offset each other, the average bank has essentially no net interest rate risk from swaps: a 100-basis-point increase in rates[…]

Author(s):Michael B. Devereux, Charles Engel & Steve Pak Yeung Wu Date:April 2023 Abstract: We construct a two-country New Keynesian model in which US government debt has an advantage as a superior collateral asset in the balance sheets of banks. The model can account for the observed response of the US dollar and US bond returns to a global downturn, in particular when the downturn is associated with a global financial crisis. In our model, the U.S. enjoys an “exorbitant privilege” as its government bonds are desired by banks both in the U.S. and abroad as superior collateral. In times of[…]

Author(s):Ugo Panizza Date:March 2023 Abstract: This paper builds a dataset on bank ownership that covers more than 6,500 banks in181 countries (59 low-income economies, 72 middle-income economies, and 50 high-income economies) over 1995-2020. I show that until 2010, there was a reduction instate-ownership of banks and an increase foreign ownership. However, the GlobalFinancial Crisis interrupted or reversed these trends. At the country level, therelationship between bank ownership and each of GDP growth and financial depth ismixed: regressions with country fixed effects indicate that the presence of foreign-owned banks is positively associated with future economic growth and state-ownership is negatively but[…]

Author(s):Cookson, J. Anthony, C. Fox, J. Gil-Bazo, J. F. Imbet, and C. Schiller Date:April 2023 Abstract: Social media fueled a bank run on Silicon Valley Bank (SVB), and the effects were felt broadly in the U.S. banking industry. We employ comprehensive Twitter data to show that preexisting exposure to social media predicts bank stock market losses in the run period even after controlling for bank characteristics related to run risk (i.e., mark-to-market losses and uninsured deposits). Moreover, we show that social media amplifies these bank run risk factors. During the run period, we find the intensity of Twitter conversation about[…]

Author(s):Mary Chen, Seung Jung Lee, Daniel Neuhann, and Farzad Saidi Date:March 2023 Abstract: Bank deregulation in the form of the repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act facilitated the entry of non-bank lenders into the market for syndicated loans during the pre-2008 credit boom. Institutional investors disproportionately purchase tranches of loans originated by universal banks able to cross-sell loans and underwriting services to firms (as permitted by the repeal). A shock to cross-selling intensity increases loan liquidity at origination and over time. The mechanism is that non-loan exposures ensure monitoring even when banks retain small loan shares. Our findings complement the conventional[…]

Author(s):Puriya Abbassi, Rajkamal Iyer, José-Luis Peydró, and Paul Soto Date:March 2023 Abstract: We study short-term and medium-term changes in bank risk-taking as a result of supervision, and the associated real effects. For identification, we exploit the European Central Bank’s asset-quality- review (AQR) in conjunction with security and credit registers. After the AQR announcement, reviewed banks reduce riskier securities and credit supply, with the greatest effect on riskiest securities. We find negative spillovers on asset prices and firm-level credit availability. Moreover, non-banks with higher exposure to reviewed banks acquire the shed risk. After the AQR compliance, reviewed banks reload riskier securities[…]

Author(s):Itamar Drechsler, Alexi Savov, Philipp Schnabl & Olivier Wang Date:April 2023 Abstract: Motivated by the regional bank crisis of 2023, we model the impact of interest rates on the liquidity risk of banks. Prior work shows that banks hedge the interest rate risk of their assets with their deposit franchise: when interest rates rise, the value of the assets falls but the value of the deposit franchise rises. Yet the deposit franchise is only valuable if depositors remain in the bank. This creates run incentives for uninsured depositors. We show that a run equilibrium is absent at low interest rates[…]

Author(s):Anusha Chari Date:April 2023 Abstract: Over the last two decades, the unprecedented increase in non-bank financial intermediation, particularly open-end mutual funds and ETFs, accounts for nearly half of the external financing flows to emerging markets exceeding cross-border lending by global banks. Evidence suggests that investment fund flows enhance risk-sharing across borders and provide emerging markets access to more diverse forms of financing. However, a growing body of evidence also indicates that investment funds are inherently more vulnerable to liquidity and redemption risks during periods of global financial market stress, increasing the volatility of capital flows to emerging markets. Benchmark-driven investments,[…]

Author(s):Viral V. Acharya, Richard Berner, Robert F. Engle III, Hyeyoon Jung, Johannes Stroebel, Xuran Zeng & Yihao Zhao Date:April 2023 Abstract: We explore the design of climate stress tests to assess and manage macro-prudential risks from climate change in the financial sector. We review the climate stress scenarios currently employed by regulators, highlighting the need to (i) consider many transition risks as dynamic policy choices; (ii) better understand and incorporate feedback loops between climate change and the economy; and (iii) further explore “compound risk” scenarios in which climate risks co-occur with other risks. We discuss how the process of mapping[…]

Author(s):Johannes Breckenfelder, Marie Hoerova Date:April 2023 Abstract: Are central bank tools effective in reaching non-banks with no access to the lender-of-last-resort facilities? Using runs on mutual funds in March 2020 as a laboratory, weshow that, following the announcement of large-scale purchases, funds with higher exante shares of assets eligible for central bank purchases saw their performance improve by3.6 percentage points and outflows decrease by 61% relative to otherwise similar funds.Following central bank liquidity provision to banks, the growth rate of repo lending tofunds by banks more exposed to the system-wide liquidity crisis was up to five timeshigher compared to other[…]

Author(s):Asli Demirguc-Kunt, Balint L. Horvath, Harry Huizinga Date:April 2023 Abstract: This paper examines the impact of international differences in capital regulation on multinationalbanks’ loan origination location decisions. International loan location decisions represent a keybanking margin that has previously not been examined in the literature on regulatory arbitrage bybanks. Our estimation relies on within-loan contribution variation in location options for individualmultinational banks that participate in a syndicated loan. We examine how the loan location choiceand the intensity of regulatory arbitrage are affected by borrower transparency. We find that greaterborrower transparency to a local bank establishment makes loan location at this establishment[…]

Author(s):Sebastian Horn, Christoph Trebesch Date:March 2023 Abstract: This paper shows that China has launched a new global system for cross-border rescue lending to countries in debt distress. We build the first comprehensive dataset on China’s overseas bailouts between 2000 and 2021 and provide new insights into China’s growing role in the global financial system. A key finding is that the global swap line network put in place by the People’s Bank of China is increasingly used as a financial rescue mechanism, with more than USD 170 billion in liquidity support extended to crisis countries, including repeated rollovers of swaps coming[…]

Author(s):Roland Beck, Antonio Coppola, Angus Lewis, Matteo Maggiori, Martin Schmitz, Jesse Schregger Date:March 2023 Abstract: We reassess the pattern of Euro Area financial integration adjusting for the role of “onshore offshore financial centers” (OOFCs) within the Euro Area. While the Euro Area records large levels of international investment both within and outside of the currency union, much of these flows are intermediated via the OOFCs of Luxembourg, Ireland, and the Netherlands. These countries have dual roles as both hubs of investment fund intermediation and centers of securities issuance by foreign firms. We look through both roles and restate the pattern[…]

Author(s):Andrew Metrick, Paul Schmelzing Date:March 2023 Abstract: U.S. and European banking institutions were hit by a wave of distress in March 2023. Policymakers on both sides of the Atlantic reacted with an array of interventions, some targeting individual institutions, others designed to shore up the banking sector as a whole. This paper contextualizes events using a new long-run database on banking-sector policy interventions over the last eight centuries. On that basis, recent actions have already been unusual in their policy mix and size – in the database, the vast majority of events with the same pattern of interventions ultimately evolved[…]

Author(s):Michael Kumhof, Marco Pinchetti, Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, Andrej Sokol Date:March 2023 Abstract: We study the consequences for business cycles and welfare of introducing an interest-bearing retail CBDC, competing with bank deposits as medium of exchange, into an estimated 2-country DSGE environment. CBDC issuance of 30% of GDP increases output and welfare by around 6% and 2%, respectively. Financial shocks account for around half of the variance of aggregate demand and inflation, and for the bulk of the variance of financial variables. An aggressive Taylorrule for the interest rate on reserves achieves welfare gains of 0.57% of steady state consumption, an optimized[…]

Author(s):Daniel Dimitrov, Sweder van Wijnbergen Date:March 2023 Abstract: We propose a credit portfolio approach for evaluating systemic risk and attributing it across institutions. We construct a model that can be estimated from high-frequency CDS data. This captures risks from publicly traded banks, privately held institutions, and cooperative banks, extending approaches that rely on information from the public equity market only. We account for correlated losses between the institutions, overcoming a modeling weakness in earlier studies. We also offer a modeling extension to account for fat tails and skewness of asset returns. The model is applied to a universe of banks[…]

Author(s):Javier Bianchi and César Sosa-Padilla Date:March 2023 Abstract: This paper surveys the recent empirical literature on historical banking crises, defined as events taking place before 1980. Advances in data collection and identification have provided new insights into the causes and consequences of crises both immediately and over the long run. We highlight three overarching threads that emerge from the literature: first, leverage in the financial system is a systematic precursor to crises; second, crises have negative effects on the real economy; and third, government interventions can ameliorate these effects. Contrasting historical episodes reveals that the process of crisis formation and[…]

Author(s):Javier Bianchi and César Sosa-Padilla Date:March 2023 Abstract: This paper investigates the implications of international financial sanctions for the reserve currency status of the US dollar. We propose a simple model of a reserve currency, demonstrate how the anticipation of financial sanctions can weaken the dollar’s status, and evaluate the welfare implications.

Author(s):Katharina Bergant, Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, and Martin Schmitz Date:February 2023 Abstract: We provide stylized facts on nonresident holdings of emerging market bonds and analyze the determinants of euro area investors’ purchases of such securities, using a comprehensive security-level dataset that tracks net transactions of individual bonds issued by emerging market economies. Euro area investors show a preference for euro-denominated and sovereign EM bonds. Net purchases tend to be higher when the macroeconomic outlook of the respective EMs improves, and US monetary policy is loosened. Conversely, euro area investors—in particular investment funds—sell emerging market debt when global financial stress is high.[…]

Author(s):Maurice Obstfeld and Haonan Zhou Date:February 2023 Abstract: The U.S. dollar’s nominal effective exchange rate closely tracks global financial conditions, whichthemselves show a cyclical pattern. Over that cycle, world asset prices, leverage, and capital flowsmove in concert with global growth, especially influencing the fortunes of emerging and developingeconomies (EMDEs). This paper documents that dollar appreciation shocks predict economicdownturns in EMDEs and highlights policies countries could implement to dampen the effects ofdollar fluctuations. Dollar appreciation shocks themselves are highly correlated not just with tighterU.S. monetary policies, but also with measures of U.S. domestic and international dollar fundingstress that themselves reflect global[…]