At the research frontier
Dollar dominance: A source of dollar volatility?
By Cara Bordier, Lukas Frei and Simon Stalder The US dollar (USD) is involved in 88% of global foreign exchange transactions, partly due to its role as a vehicle currency. Using high-frequency data from primary interdealer platforms, we develop a novel methodology to identify USD cross-trades. We show both theoretically and empirically that such trades[…]
CEPR Discussion Paper – The Trafalgar Squeeze of Global Liquidity
Author(s):Vincent Bignon, Benoit Mojon and Miguel Ortiz Serrano Date:May 11, 2026 Abstract: The severity of financial crises is exacerbated by the lack of international liquidity or the absence of a global lender of last resort. This was evident during the Long Depression (1873–1896), the Great Depression (1929–1936), and, as we show in this paper, during[…]
Brookings Working Paper: External finance in emerging markets and developing economies: A tale of differences in vulnerabilities
Author(s): Dohan Kim and Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti Date: January 2026 Abstract: Over the past two decades, many emerging market economies have become more resilient to external financial shocks. This paper assesses whether such resilience is broadly shared across emerging markets and developing economies by classifying them into three tiers based on economic size, income level,[…]
Deutsche Bundesbank Discussion Paper – Shaping the financial cycle through monetary policy
Author(s):Martin Kliem & Norbert Metiu Date:November, 2025 Abstract: Financial cycles, characterized by long-term fluctuations in credit and house prices, have profound implications for macro-financial stability. This study explores how systematic monetary policy can shape these cycles, offering insights into its potential to mitigate financial instability. Using U.S. data, we demonstrate that monetary policy can dampen[…]
NBER Working Paper – Our Underappreciated International Reserve System
Author(s):Serkan Arslanalp, Barry Eichengreen & Chima Simpson-Bell Date:November, 2025 Abstract: We document some underappreciated aspects of the recent evolution of the international reserve system. These include the growing share of gold in global central bank reserves, the continuing emergence of nontraditional reserve currencies, and the stalling share of renminbi in reserves. These trends are consistent[…]
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