At the research frontier
NBER Working Paper – Why Care About Debt-to-GDP?
Author(s):Jonathan B. Berk & Jules H. van Binsbergen Date:January, 2026 Abstract: We construct an international panel data set comprising three distinct yet plausible measures of government indebtedness: the debt-to-GDP, the interest-to-GDP, and the debt-to-equity ratios. Our analysis reveals that these measures yield differing conclusions about recent trends in government indebtedness. While the debt-to-GDP ratio has[…]
NBER Working Paper – The Rise of Specialized Financial Products
Author(s):Ana Babus, Matias Marzani & Sara Moreira Date:December, 2025 Abstract: The variety of financial products available for firms to raise funds has expanded rapidly in recent decades. This paper studies the role of innovations that introduce specialized financial products using a combination of granular data and a parsimonious model of security issuance. We present three[…]
Deutsche Bundesbank Discussion Paper – Shaping the financial cycle through monetary policy
Author(s):Martin Kliem & Norbert Metiu Date:November, 2025 Abstract: Financial cycles, characterized by long-term fluctuations in credit and house prices, have profound implications for macro-financial stability. This study explores how systematic monetary policy can shape these cycles, offering insights into its potential to mitigate financial instability. Using U.S. data, we demonstrate that monetary policy can dampen[…]
NBER Working Paper – Our Underappreciated International Reserve System
Author(s):Serkan Arslanalp, Barry Eichengreen & Chima Simpson-Bell Date:November, 2025 Abstract: We document some underappreciated aspects of the recent evolution of the international reserve system. These include the growing share of gold in global central bank reserves, the continuing emergence of nontraditional reserve currencies, and the stalling share of renminbi in reserves. These trends are consistent[…]
NBER Working Paper – Branching Out: Capital Mobility and Long-Run Growth
Author(s):Sarah Quincy & Chenzi Xu Date:November, 2025 Abstract: We study the long-run effects of the first wave of U.S. banking market integration on capital mobility and manufacturing productivity. Using newly digitized bank and branch balance sheet data matched to state and county panels, we provide direct evidence that branching produced lasting productivity gains without aggregate[…]
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