At the research frontier
NBER Working Paper – States as Financiers: International Lending in War and Peace
Author(s):Sebastian Horn, Carmen M. Reinhart & Christoph Trebesch Date:May, 2026 Abstract: States are major international financiers, but their role is poorly understood. We study state-driven cross-border lending over two centuries using a new database covering 1.2 million official loans and grants by 134 governments and 70 multilateral institutions since 1790. We document a dual, state-contingent[…]
Brookings Working Paper: External finance in emerging markets and developing economies: A tale of differences in vulnerabilities
Author(s): Dohan Kim and Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti Date: January 2026 Abstract: Over the past two decades, many emerging market economies have become more resilient to external financial shocks. This paper assesses whether such resilience is broadly shared across emerging markets and developing economies by classifying them into three tiers based on economic size, income level,[…]
Deutsche Bundesbank Discussion Paper – Shaping the financial cycle through monetary policy
Author(s):Martin Kliem & Norbert Metiu Date:November, 2025 Abstract: Financial cycles, characterized by long-term fluctuations in credit and house prices, have profound implications for macro-financial stability. This study explores how systematic monetary policy can shape these cycles, offering insights into its potential to mitigate financial instability. Using U.S. data, we demonstrate that monetary policy can dampen[…]
NBER Working Paper – Our Underappreciated International Reserve System
Author(s):Serkan Arslanalp, Barry Eichengreen & Chima Simpson-Bell Date:November, 2025 Abstract: We document some underappreciated aspects of the recent evolution of the international reserve system. These include the growing share of gold in global central bank reserves, the continuing emergence of nontraditional reserve currencies, and the stalling share of renminbi in reserves. These trends are consistent[…]
NBER Working Paper – Branching Out: Capital Mobility and Long-Run Growth
Author(s):Sarah Quincy & Chenzi Xu Date:November, 2025 Abstract: We study the long-run effects of the first wave of U.S. banking market integration on capital mobility and manufacturing productivity. Using newly digitized bank and branch balance sheet data matched to state and county panels, we provide direct evidence that branching produced lasting productivity gains without aggregate[…]
Open Call For Papers
6th Oxford/Federal Reserve Bank of New York/Bank of England Monetary Economics Conference
Stigler Center-CEPR Conference Series on the Political Economy of Finance: Corny Capitalism in 21st Century America (Sixth Edition)
27th Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference: Towards a Multipolar World – Technology and Geopolitics
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